Maurizio Bussolo

The research proposed here will analyze the economic impacts of a delayed or a quickened decline in fertility rates in developing countries. Four hypotheses will be tested:

• Delay of the decline in fertility rates will occur during the next two decades;
• Increase in income inequality and slowed poverty reduction;
• A slow-down in the increase in urbanization rates;
• Strain of education systems, making the Millennium Development Goals more difficult to achieve.

The study will use a combination of macro models (economy-wide general equilibrium models) and micro models (based on household survey data). The main methodological contribution of the study will be the development of methods that make the macro and micro approaches more mutually consistent, which is a still under-researched area. The research will benefit from a global general equilibrium model (distinguishing some 80 countries or regions and some 40 sectors) and a global database with household surveys of 95 developing countries, both developed at the World Bank and applied in recent work carried out by the Development Prospects Group in the Bank

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